Possible scenario
Trial Track Continues
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. prosecution proceeds while Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores remain outside U.S. custody and continue contesting jurisdiction. Washington keeps the case active as a legal and diplomatic pressure tool, but near-term Venezuelan governance and oil flows remain largely unchanged.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- CVX-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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