Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Builds
25% Chance
The criminal case increases political pressure in Washington to tighten Venezuela-related sanctions, especially if Maduro's government continues arrests of opponents and foreign detainees. Energy companies with licenses or payment exposure in Venezuela face higher compliance and operating uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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