Possible scenario
Negotiated Off-Ramp
20% Chance
Maduro may try to reduce legal and sanctions pressure by offering detainee releases, opposition concessions, or controlled talks with U.S.-recognized intermediaries. Such a deal would not erase the charges but could lower the probability of broader sanctions escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- CVX+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.