Possible scenario
Result Is Contested
10%
−0.2%
The race finishes close enough for recount litigation, ballot challenges, or delayed certification to dominate the post-election period. Both parties nationalize the dispute because the seat could affect the Senate balance.
What it moves
- Finance−0.2%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.