Possible scenario
Russian Leverage Persists
20% Chance
Russia uses the waiver to regain optionality but does not fully reopen diesel exports. Moscow preserves leverage over supply volumes and pricing while demanding better payment, shipping and insurance terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
- Industrials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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