Possible scenario
Managed Supply Relief
45% Chance
The waiver succeeds in restoring some Russian diesel into global trade without formally dismantling the broader sanctions architecture. Washington frames the move as a temporary fuel-security measure, while traders use India, Turkey and the UAE as compliance-friendly intermediaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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