Possible scenario
Allied Sanctions Split
25% Chance
The U.S. waiver creates a rift with European allies that remain focused on limiting Russian energy revenue. Compliance uncertainty fragments the diesel market, with U.S.-approved cargoes trading separately from EU- and UK-restricted flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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