China-Brokered Settlement

its chance, of the story’s futures

+1.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

China could move from public pressure to direct mediation because its crude lifeline is exposed and Iranian cargoes to China are still moving. A Beijing-backed settlement would be more credible to Tehran than a Western demand, but it may prioritize Chinese-linked flows over universal access.

What it moves

Energy−1.9%
Industrials+1.6%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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