Possible scenario
Omani Mediation Resumes
23% Chance
Oman and possibly the UN revive a de-escalation channel between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. This path is plausible because both sides have previously used talks to limit costs, and the Houthis may seek leverage rather than a full Saudi war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.