Possible scenario
Limited Retaliatory Strikes
25% Chance
Riyadh, likely with U.S. intelligence and air-defense support, responds against Houthi launch sites and drone facilities in Yemen. The objective is deterrence rather than a wider war, but the risk of counterfire keeps oil and volatility elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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