Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Disruption
42% Chance
Saudi authorities restore most Riyadh airport operations while Aramco contains damage at the struck refinery. This is the most likely path because recent Houthi attacks have disrupted aviation and energy assets without yet causing a confirmed large-scale loss of Saudi export capacity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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