Possible scenario
Russian Ramp Holds
45% Chance
Russia succeeds in shifting more strike capacity from imported Shahed-style drones toward domestically produced Geran jet drones and heavier missiles. This is the base case because the timeline shows sustained investment, expanded plants, and budget prioritization already underway.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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