Possible scenario
Ukraine Adapts Defenses
25% Chance
Ukraine and its NATO backers respond by accelerating cheaper layered defenses, including interceptor drones, electronic warfare, mobile gun teams, and short-range air-defense missiles. This path is plausible because Russia's cost-imposition strategy creates strong incentives to avoid using expensive interceptors against low-cost jet drones.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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