Possible scenario
Escalatory Strike Campaign
20% Chance
Russia uses the new mix of faster drones and heavier missiles to intensify attacks on Ukraine's power grid, rail nodes, and defense-industrial sites. This is less likely than a steady production ramp but remains credible because Moscow has repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure during winter periods.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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