Possible scenario
No Gubernatorial Bid
45% Chance
Justice ultimately decides that returning to Charleston is not worth a primary fight with Gov. Patrick Morrisey or the risk of giving up Senate influence. This is the most likely path because he has a fresh six-year Senate mandate and national Republicans would prefer to avoid an intra-party clash in West Virginia.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.