Plan Breaks Down

17%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Russia or Ukraine concludes the proposed demilitarized zones are incompatible with core war aims. The diplomatic channel remains possible, but the immediate path to a frozen conflict closes.

What it moves

Technology−0.9%
Energy+0.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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