Possible scenario
Policy Rethink Emerges
20% Chance
The 2028 purchase delay becomes a live policy issue rather than a settled technical matter. Sticky inflation could validate the delay, while reserve scarcity or market plumbing strains could push officials to soften the plan before 2028.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Finance -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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