Possible scenario
Cuts Offset QT
25% Chance
The delayed bond-purchase restart coexists with softer Canadian growth and a path toward policy-rate cuts. Investors distinguish between the balance-sheet decision and the overnight-rate cycle, limiting the tightening effect on broader markets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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