Possible scenario
Orderly QT Extension
45% Chance
The Bank of Canada keeps quantitative tightening in place longer than many dealers expected, but markets treat the delay as a technical balance-sheet decision rather than a major policy tightening. Government of Canada issuance is absorbed by pensions, insurers and foreign investors with only a modest rise in term premium.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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