Enforcement Escalates

A less benign but highly plausible path is that the missed 50,000-unit tally becomes evidence for a wider DOJ and Commerce investigation. Officials may not accuse Nvidia itself of spying, but subpoenas, interviews, and shipment reviews could create a near-term overhang for AI-chip exporters.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.