Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is continued de-risking because the selloff follows a multi-week rise in Treasury yields and a fresh AI-led equity reversal. Investors remain focused on inflation persistence, Fed hike projections, and stretched mega-cap technology valuations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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