Possible scenario
Relief Rally
25% Chance
A short-term rebound is plausible because the one-day loss may have triggered oversold conditions and hedging demand. If Treasury yields pause or fall, investors could buy back high-quality growth shares and unwind some volatility hedges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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