Possible scenario
Inflation Rebounds
16% Chance
The latest core inflation low proves temporary as subsequent wage, shelter or services data reintroduce upside inflation risk. Markets reverse part of the dovish repricing and move back toward a more conventional tightening path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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