Possible scenario
BoC Pauses Again
32% Chance
Cooling core inflation and recent job losses convince the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged. This outcome would mark a sharper shift away from the still-elevated 68% hike probability and would likely trigger a modest risk-on repricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Utilities +0.7%
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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