Possible scenario
Dovish October Hike
44% Chance
The Bank of Canada still raises rates by 25 basis points because hike odds remain above even money, but the six-year low in core inflation forces a cautious message. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasizes that policy is now restrictive and further moves depend on labor and inflation data.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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