Possible scenario
Separatists Contest Result
15% Chance
A minority of separatist organizers challenge the referendum process or call demonstrations despite the wide margin. The dispute is unlikely to overturn the result, but it temporarily slows the relief rally and revives headline risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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