Possible scenario
Unity Deal Advances
45% Chance
The referendum result gives Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith political room to de-escalate. Markets treat the vote as a reduction in Canadian constitutional risk, with attention shifting to pipelines, emissions rules, and fiscal concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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