Possible scenario
Retaliation Stays Contained
30% Chance
Moscow retaliates with missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian power, rail, and defense infrastructure. The response is severe for Ukraine but remains within the pattern of the war, avoiding direct NATO involvement or major disruption to global energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.