Possible scenario
Deep Strikes Continue
45% Chance
Ukraine continues a measured campaign against Russian precision-weapons production, using drones or long-range missiles enabled by Western intelligence. Russia absorbs the damage while dispersing production and strengthening air defenses, keeping the conflict inside the existing escalation band.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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