Possible scenario
Escalation Risk Rises
15% Chance
Russia frames the Rostov attack as a Western-enabled strike on strategic defense industry and threatens retaliation against decision centers or logistics routes. The risk of miscalculation rises, especially if Russian missiles or drones again approach NATO airspace.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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