Possible scenario
Criminal Case Narrows
38% Chance
The newly published texts make the criminal case harder to charge as a group sexual assault, especially if prosecutors conclude they create reasonable-doubt problems about consent and contemporaneous characterization. Tompkins County prosecutors are still likely to continue reviewing Cornell's internal file, witness interviews, and the counter-claim before making a charging decision.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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