Possible scenario
Civil Litigation Dominates
20% Chance
The most durable fallout may be civil litigation rather than criminal convictions, because the public record now includes Cornell's internal file, the New York Times publication, and competing sexual-assault claims. Both sides have incentives to sue over process, privacy, defamation, and institutional handling.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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