Possible scenario
Charges Are Filed
30% Chance
Despite the texts, prosecutors may conclude other evidence supports criminal charges, including intoxication evidence, witness testimony, or communications not yet public. The publication of the texts could also force prosecutors to act more deliberately, charging fewer defendants or using narrower counts.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.