Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow responds with a visible retaliatory campaign against Ukrainian energy, defense, or transport infrastructure. This raises near-term geopolitical risk but remains below a regime-changing escalation because both sides have already normalized long-range strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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