Possible scenario
Energy Targets Expand
20% Chance
Ukraine follows the Moscow airport raid with additional strikes on fuel depots, refineries, or transport nodes supporting Russian logistics. The market impact is still moderate, but oil risk premia rise if investors see a pattern of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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