Possible scenario
Contained Moscow Disruption
45% Chance
Ukraine continues to use long-range drones to disrupt Moscow aviation, but the effects remain operational rather than strategic. Russian air defenses and airport authorities keep closing Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky intermittently, while markets treat the episode as an extension of the existing war pattern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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