The downgrade follows a DHM Research poll showing Kotek with 46% support, Christine Drazan with 44%, and Brett Smith at 3%, marking the first lead for the first-term governor since February. However, previous polling between June and September had consistently shown Drazan in the lead by as much as 4 points. A New York Times report noted that National Republicans see a potential opportunity in Oregon as Kotek's popularity has plummeted ahead of next week's mail-in ballots.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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VoteHub Shifts Oregon Governor Race to Lean D on Narrowing Margin
US Politics9 days ago
VoteHub revised its outlook for the Oregon governor's race on Oct. 11, citing a win probability that now favors incumbent Tina Kotek by only 8.2%. The electoral rating for the contest moved from Likely D to Lean D, though the firm noted that limited polling in the race continues to create uncertainty in the projection.
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