Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic House
45% Chance
Democrats win the House but by a modest margin, while Republicans retain the Senate. This is the base case because the generic ballot, Trump approval decline, retirements, and GOP admissions all point to a House flip, but not necessarily a landslide.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.7%
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.