Possible scenario
Decisive House Wave
30% Chance
Democrats win the House by a clear margin, helped by backlash to Medicaid cuts, retirements in Republican-held districts, and Trump’s weak approval. Republicans still hold the Senate, limiting legislative change but giving Democrats subpoena power and control of House appropriations.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +1.1%
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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