Possible scenario
Democratic Congress Sweep
15% Chance
Democrats win the House and also narrowly take the Senate, producing a much broader repudiation of the Trump agenda than markets had expected. Legislative change would still face presidential vetoes, but confirmations, investigations, appropriations, and oversight would shift sharply.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Healthcare +1.1%
- Finance -1.0%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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