Managed Trade Détente

Macron's rejection of a trade war leads Paris to push Brussels and Beijing toward a negotiated pause. This is the most likely path because France has large exposure to Chinese demand through luxury goods, spirits, autos, aerospace, and agriculture, while Beijing also has incentives to avoid a full rupture with the EU.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.