Possible scenario
EU Hard Line Holds
20% Chance
The European Commission and more hawkish member states maintain a firm trade-defense stance despite Macron's warnings. This path is plausible because EU industrial policy has shifted toward subsidy enforcement and strategic autonomy, especially in autos, batteries, steel, and clean technology.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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