Possible scenario
Democrats Stay Competitive
25% Chance
The rally locks in Paxton's base but also reinforces Democratic messaging that the race is a referendum on Trump and Paxton's ethics record. Suburban and college-educated voters in Dallas, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio keep the contest competitive.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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