Possible scenario
Managed Reserve Buildout
45% Chance
The most likely path is a gradual reserve buildout using Defense Logistics Agency purchasing authority, trader warehousing, and offtake-style contracts. Washington prioritizes cobalt, antimony, tantalum, rare earth oxides, and magnet feedstocks without triggering an immediate market dislocation.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.1%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- UAMY+3.8%
- MP+3.0%
- EFR+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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