Possible scenario
China Calibrates Response
25% Chance
China responds tactically rather than with an across-the-board export ban, using licensing delays and diplomatic signaling to preserve leverage. The market impact depends on whether Beijing tightens controls or keeps the late-2026 pause in place to support negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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