Possible scenario
Nuclear Track Deteriorates
27% Chance
Iran treats the new sanctions as proof Washington cannot deliver relief and hardens its nuclear position. The immediate risk is not a declared breakout, but reduced monitoring, delayed uranium custody arrangements, and pressure on European capitals to reimpose penalties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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