Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Rupture
38% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled break in talks rather than a full collapse. Washington uses sanctions to punish Iran's reversal while Qatar and Oman keep channels open to preserve a sequencing formula around Hormuz, oil enforcement, and 60% enriched uranium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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