Possible scenario
Maritime Pressure Expands
23% Chance
Sanctions enforcement spills further into shipping, insurance, and Gulf security. This path is less likely than a managed diplomatic freeze, but it carries the largest immediate oil-market risk because the earlier dispute centered on Hormuz sequencing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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