Possible scenario
Sustained Air Campaign
30% Chance
The coalition continues airstrikes against Houthi command sites in Sanaa and nearby military infrastructure, arguing the hospital damage was collateral or caused by nearby Houthi assets. The Houthis respond with drones or missiles, but attacks remain below the threshold of major regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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