Possible scenario
Red Sea Disruption
22% Chance
Houthi control of the Red Sea coast becomes the central military issue after the Sanaa strikes. Shipping insurers, naval escorts, and Gulf states react to the risk that the conflict spreads from airstrikes into maritime disruption near Bab el-Mandeb.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.